GasAlpha
Dashboard Prices Basis Models West Trend PWCDD Population Renewables Gas Displacement Portfolio X @GasAlphaHQ
Updated Oct 16, 2026 at 01:08 PM UTC / Oct 16 at 08:08 AM CT
Oct 17 – Oct 26 · 4-Model Consensus · 00z
99.1 GWDDs
Gas-consumption-weighted degree days · 9 EIA census divisions
+10.0 vs 30-Year Normal (92.4)
+11.5 vs 5-Year Normal (90.9)
+2.7 vs Last Year (99.7)
HH Prompt (NYMEX)
$3.122
-0.045 (-1.4%)
GFS (10-day)
105.1
GEFS (10-Day)
105.3
ECMWF IFS (10-Day)
99.7
ECMWF AIFS (10-Day)
86.3
GFS vs IFS Spread
5.4 GWDDs
GFS (14-day)
147.6
10-15 00z → 10-16 00z (same cycle)
GFS▼ 3.8BEARISH
IFS▼ 2.4BEARISH
GEFS▲ 2.2BULLISH
AIFS▼ 0.7BEARISH
Daily GWDD Forecast — Shape of the 10-Day Window
Daily GWDD Forecast
10-Day GWDD Ranking vs Prior Years (00z Consensus + 12z Drift)
GWDD Historical Ranking
10-Day GWDD Run History (00z Consensus) — Pick a Past Date
Select any past date to see what the 10-day GWDD consensus was on that run date, ranked vs the same 10-day window in prior years.
Single-Day GWDD Forecast Ranking (00z) — Next 10 Days vs Prior Years
Select any date — past or future forecast — to see that specific day's GWDD ranked vs the same calendar date in prior years. Future dates use the 4-model 00z consensus forecast.
Model Trend — Run History
GWDD Model Trend
This Week's Storage vs Prior Years

Storage change, week of Oct 3–Oct 9: 2026 vs prior 5 years

ranked most bullish → most bearish · EIA actual
2026 · actual
+67
2024
+76
2025
+81
2021
+81
2023
+84
2022
+125
Source: EIA weekly storage · gasalpha.com
EIA Report Day
Latest Report: Thu Oct 15 Report (wk ending Oct 09) (projected 2026-10-15)
GasAlpha Projected
+87 BCF
Est. GWDD: 72
EIA Actual
+67 BCF
Inventory: 3,567 BCF
Miss
-20 BCF
BULLISH MISS
Next Report — Thu Oct 22 (wk ending Oct 16): GasAlpha +90 BCF PROJECTION
Natural Gas Storage — 2026 vs Prior 5 Years
5-Year Storage Comparison
Henry Hub Prices
Forward Curve, Price History & CFTC Positioning
12-month strip · seasonal overlay · prompt ranking vs prior years · managed money positioning
VIEW PRICE PAGE →
LNG Feedgas Demand
Est. Feedgas 18.6 BCF/day
LNG Exports 16.7 BCF/day (117 BCF/wk)
Utilization 95% of 19.5 BCF/d capacity
vs Last Year +2.2 BCF/d (+15.0%)
Source EIA Monthly (~93d lag) — 2026-07
LNG Exports Trend
POWER GENERATION FUEL MIX — 2026-10-06 TO 2026-10-12
Fuel Type % Share vs Prior Week
Natural Gas 40.4% Down -3.1%
Nuclear 17.7% Unch
Coal 15.4% Down -0.7%
Wind 11.9% Up +2.6%
Solar 7.9% Up +0.8%
Hydroelectric 4.6% Up +0.3%
Other 1.5% Unch
Source: EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor · US Lower 48 · Updated daily from EIA
Latest EIA Report — Week of October 09, 2026
Nationwide Inventory 3,567 BCF
Weekly Change +67 BCF
vs 5-Year Average +47 BCF (+1.3%)
vs Last Year -133 BCF (-3.6%)
Region Inventory vs 5-Yr Avg vs Last Year
East 884 BCF +28 BCF (+3.3%) +4 BCF (+0.5%)
Midwest 1,037 BCF +20 BCF (+2.0%) +10 BCF (+1.0%)
South Central 1,097 BCF -35 BCF (-3.1%) -122 BCF (-10.0%)
Mountain 255 BCF +15 BCF (+6.2%) -13 BCF (-4.9%)
Pacific 294 BCF +18 BCF (+6.5%) -13 BCF (-4.2%)

GasAlpha tracks Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) from four weather models — GFS, ECMWF IFS, GEFS, and AIFS — updated four times daily. GWDDs weight temperature by regional natural gas consumption across the 9 EIA census divisions, making them a more accurate signal for storage draws and price moves than standard HDDs. The dashboard shows the 4-model consensus, historical rankings vs prior years, EIA storage comparisons, and forward curve context for natural gas traders. GasAlpha also tracks western US natural gas basis differentials, including EP San Juan, TW San Juan, SoCal Gas, PG&E Citygate, and Waha hub forward curves and historical percentiles. Used by natural gas traders, energy analysts, and commodity market participants to assess weather-driven demand, EIA storage trajectory, and price risk across Henry Hub and western basis markets. GasAlpha provides daily GWDD rankings vs prior years, EIA natural gas storage report analysis, weekly CFTC managed money positioning for natural gas futures, Henry Hub 12-month forward curve, and seasonal price history from 2021 to present. Key metrics include GFS vs ECMWF model spread, 4-model GWDD consensus, natural gas storage deficit vs 5-year average, storage vs last year comparison, and Henry Hub prompt price percentile ranking vs prior years. Natural gas weather forecasts updated 4 times daily at 5z, 9z, 13z, and 21z UTC. Natural gas trading requires accurate weather forecasts, real-time GWDD data, EIA storage analysis, and forward curve context — GasAlpha provides all of these in a single natural gas trading dashboard updated throughout the trading day. Natural gas traders use GWDDs to forecast EIA weekly storage draws and injections, anticipate Henry Hub price moves, and assess weather risk in natural gas futures and options markets. GasAlpha tracks the GFS weather model, ECMWF IFS weather model, GEFS ensemble, and AIFS model — the same models used by professional natural gas forecasters — and combines them into a single 4-model consensus GWDD figure updated four times daily. Disclaimer: GasAlpha is a weather and market data tool for informational purposes only. Weather models are probabilistic forecasts and are not guaranteed to be accurate. Nothing on this dashboard constitutes financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity or financial instrument. All data should be independently verified before use in trading decisions.